Mortgage Rates Back Above 3%. Will They Keep Rising?
October 1, 2021
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.01% this week, posting a sharp rise after spending nearly four months below 3%. Economists expect mortgage rates to continue to increase modestly over the next few months.
“Mortgage rates rose across all loan types this week as the 10-year Treasury yield reached its highest point since June,” says Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “Many factors led to this increase, including the Federal Reserve communicating that it will taper its support of the capital markets, the broadening of inflation, and emerging energy supply shortages, which compound other labor and materials shortages.”
Fed Hints Mortgage Rates May Soon Rise:
An increase in mortgage rates over the next few months—even though expected to be slight—“will likely have an impact on home prices, causing them to moderate slightly after increasing over the last year,” Khater adds.
Still, mortgage rates are hovering near their record lows. “Consumers shouldn’t panic,” Nadia Evangelou, senior economist and director of forecasting for the National Association of REALTORS®, writes on the association’s blog. “Keep in mind that even though rates will increase in the following months, these rates will still be historically low.” NAR forecasts the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage to average 3.5% by mid-2022.
Freddie Mac reports the following national averages with mortgage rates for the week ending Sept. 30:
30-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 3.01%, with an average 0.7 point, up from a 2.88% average last week. A year ago, 30-year rates averaged 2.88%.
15-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 2.28%, with an average 0.6 point, increasing from last week’s 2.15% average. A year ago, 15-year rates averaged 2.36%.
5-year hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages: averaged 2.48%, with an average 0.3 point, increasing from last week’s 2.43% average. A year ago, 5-year ARMs averaged 2.90%.
Freddie Mac reports average commitment rates along with average points to better reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining a mortgage.
Source: Freddie Mac and “Instant Reaction: Mortgage Rates, September 30, 2021,” National Association of REALTOR® Economists’ Outlook blog (Sept. 30, 2021)